10 Wild Super Bowl ATS & Over/Under Trends for Chiefs vs Eagles

NFL team trends can be a lot of fun. They can also be a great help in making bets, especially when it comes to the Super Bowl—the less obscure ones, anyways. The 2025 Super Bowl sees the Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles (again) at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana on Sunday, February 9.

Let’s say you wanted to bet on the Kansas City Chiefs to win Super Bowl 59 but aren’t sure if you want to bet them to cover the spread. STOP! A very strong Super Bowl ATS trend suggests the moneyline isn’t the play here.

Do not lock in any Super Bowl bets until you have seen these 10 against-the-spread and over/under Super Bowl trends. (Also strongly recommend you check in frequently with the Super Bowl odds as well …)

Super Bowl 59 ATS Trends

In this section, I’ll focus on historical ATS trends we have seen in the past 58 Super Bowls that are relevant to the 2025 Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

1) The Team Who Wins the Super Bowl Almost Always Covers the Spread

Simply put, just the pick the winner of the Super Bowl. The team who wins the game is 49-7-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history.

Only seven teams have won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread:

• Rams in Super Bowl 56 (-4.5)
• Steelers in Super Bowls 43 & 10 (-7 in both)
• Patriots in Super Bowls 38 & 39 (-7 in both)
• Cowboys in Super Bowl 30 (- 13.5)
• 49ers in Super Bowl 23 (-7)

The two pushes came in Super Bowl 34 (Rams over Titans) and Super Bowl 31 (Packers over Patriots).

Last year’s Super Bowl added to this trend, as the Chiefs beat the 49ers 25-22 as underdogs.

So the general sentiment here is that if you like the favorite (Chiefs) to win, bet them against the spread (-1.5 currently). If you like the underdog (Eagles), don’t worry about taking the points; bet them on the moneyline (+110 at the time of writing this).

2) Super Bowl Underdogs Have Been Hot Against the Spread Lately

Underdogs have been hot in the last 23 Super Bowls, going 17-6 against the spread in that time. If you had bet $100 on each underdog to cover the spread in the last 23 Super Bowls, you would have profited $947.

The six favorites to cover the spread in the last 23 Super Bowls include:

1. Chiefs in Super Bowl 54
2. Patriots in Super Bowl 53
3. Patriots in Super Bowl 51
4. Packers in Super Bowl 45
5. Colts in Super Bowl 41
6. Steelers in Super Bowl 40

You can take a deeper look at Super Bowl betting data in our historical Super Bowl spreads.

The Chiefs added to this trend last year when they covered as 1.5-point underdogs against the 49ers.

3) Favorites Don’t Cover in Super Bowl Rematches

The Chiefs are 1.5-point favorites in the 2025 Super Bowl when they take on the Philadelphia Eagles.

There have not been a ton of Super Bowl rematches in the past, but the previous matchups include:

• Pittsburgh Steelers and Dallas Cowboys (1976, 1979, 1996) – Steelers covered as the favorites in 1979 but then covered as dogs in 1996
• Miami Dolphins and Washington Redskins (1973, 1983) – Washington won outright as underdogs in the rematch
• San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals (1982, 1989) – Bengals covered as underdogs in the rematch
• Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills (1993, 1994) – Cowboys covered as favorites in the rematch
• Patriots and New York Giants (2008, 2012) – Giants won outright as underdogs in the rematch
• Philadelphia Eagles and New England Patriots (2005, 2018) – Eagles won outright as dogs in the rematch
• San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs (2020, 2024) – Chiefs won as slight dogs in the rematch

Favorites have only covered in two of the eight rematches and both of those games included the Cowboys. Super Bowl 59 will be a rematch of Super Bowl 57 and the Eagles are the underdogs.

4) Male-Led Halftime Show Means Underdogs Cover

I’ll hold off on listing all the male-led halftime shows, since I do that below. But the only with favorite to cover in the last ten male-led performances was Super Bowl 53 (Patriots beating Rams 13-3, covering as 2.5-point favorites).

5) Underdogs Shine When Reigning Champs Make it Back

The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to repeat (three-peat in this case) as Super Bowl champions. When they won last year, they became the first repeat champions since the 2003-2004 Tom brady-led New England Patriots. Now Patrick Mahomes and company look to become the first ever back-to-back-to-back champions.

But when reigning champions make it back to the big game, the underdog tends to cover the spread. Here’s a look at the last six Super Bowls where a team had a chance to repeat as champions:

• Super Bowl 58 (49ers vs Chiefs) – the Chiefs upset the 49ers as 1.5-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 55 (Chiefs vs Buccaneers) – the Bucs upset the Chiefs as 3-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 52 (Eagles vs Patriots) – The Eagles upset the Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 49 (Patriots vs Seahawks) – the Patriots upset the Seahawks as 1-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 39 (Patriots vs Eagles) – New England did repeat as Super Bowl champions, but the Eagles covered as 7-point underdogs
• Super Bowl 33 (Broncos vs Falcons) – Denver is the only favorite to cover in the last six Super Bowls where a team is trying to repeat, as they easily covered as 7.5-point favorites
• Super Bowl 32 (Packers vs Broncos) – Green Bay was upset by the Broncos as 11-point favorites

Unfortunately(?) for the Chiefs, they are the favorites in Super Bowl 59.

6) Underdogs Like a Low Total

Here’s a look at the last seven Super Bowls with totals less than 50: (1) Super Bowl 47, when the Ravens won outright as underdogs; (2) Super Bowl 48, when the Seahawks won outright as underdogs; (3) Super Bowl 49, when the Patriots won outright as underdogs; (4) Super Bowl 50, when the Broncos won outright as underdogs; (5) Super Bowl 52, when the Eagles won outright as underdogs; (6) Super Bowl 56, when the Bengals covered as underdogs; and (7) Super Bowl 58, when the Chiefs won outright as underdogs.

The total is once again less than 50 in Super Bowl 59.

7) Strong Rushing Performances Lead to ATS Victories

Because I like you, I’m throwing in one more bonus trend (there are still four more to come on the game’s total)! But this isn’t one that necessarily points to one side or the other prior to the game, since it is based off performance in the Super Bowl.

Nevertheless, here it is: the team who rushes for more yards in the Super Bowl is 41-14-3 against the spread.

Last year, we saw the Chiefs rush for 130 yards versus the 49ers’ 110 yards on the ground, and Kansas City covered the spread (won as the underdog). The Chiefs also outrushed the Eagles in Super Bowl 57 (158 to 115). The 49ers in Super Bowl 54 are the only team in the last six years to rush for more yards than their opponent and not cover the spread. They lost that Super Bowl to the Chiefs.

This trend is great news for the Eagles in Super Bowl 59, as Kansas City finished the regular season ranked 22nd in rushing yards, and have been outrushed in both playoff games. Philadelphia, on the other hand, finished the regular season second in rushing, have outrushed their opponents in all three playoff games, and have recorded 229+ rushing yards in each of their last two games.

Super Bowl 59 Over/Under Trends

In this section, I am going to be going through the historical Super Bowl trends around the over/under (or total) that are relevant to Super Bowl 59.

1) Points Are Scored in Super Bowls with the AFC West

Four of the last five Super Bowls featuring an AFC West team went under:

• In their rematch during Super Bowl 58, the Chiefs and 49ers fell a point shy of the over
• The Chiefs and Eagles go well over their 51.5 total in Super Bowl 57
• The Chiefs and Buccaneers came up well short in Super Bowl 55
• The Chiefs and 49ers only fell a couple points shy of their 53.5 total in Super Bowl 54 (52 points scored)
• The Broncos and Panthers only combined for 34 points – the total was 43.5 – in Super Bowl 50

You have to go all the way back to 1984, though, to find the next one that went under, as Super Bowls featuring the AFC West reeled off eight straight overs, making the over 9-4 in the last 13.

The total for Super Bowl 59 is sitting at 49.5 right now.

2) Small Super Bowl Spreads Have Meant Lots of Points

With two teams that are believed to be so evenly matched, it makes sense that lots of points would be scored. Both coaches are throwing the kitchen sink at each other on offense and trying to steal a possession, knowing they’ll need all the points they can get.

The last 12 Super Bowls that had spreads equal to or less than three points were:

Recent Super Bowls with Spreads of 3 or Less

As you can see, the over has hit in seven of them. But the more recent trend has said under in four of the last five.

Super Bowl 59 sees the Chiefs favored by just 1.5 points. The total was listed at 49.5 at the time of writing this.

3) Male-Led Super Bowl Halftime Shows Call for Unders

Here’s a look at the last 14 Super Bowl halftime shows that were male-led:

• Super Bowl 58 (Usher)
• Super Bowl 56 (Dr Dre, Snoop, Eminem)
• Super Bowl 55 (The Weeknd)
• Super Bowl 53 (Maroon 5)
• Super Bowl 52 (Justin Timberlake)
• Super Bowl 50 (Coldplay)
• Super Bowl 48 (Bruno Mars)
• Super Bowl 44 (The Who)
• Super Bowl 43 (Bruce Springsteen)
• Super Bowl 42 (Tom Petty & The Heartbreakers)
• Super Bowl 41 (Prince)
• Super Bowl 40 (The Rolling Stones)
• Super Bowl 39 (Paul McCartney)
• Super Bowl 36 (U2)

Only three of those games saw their totals go over: 52 (Eagles vs Patriots), 48 (Seahawks vs Broncos), and 43 (Steelers vs Cardinals). Kendrick Lamar will perform at the Super Bowl 59 halftime show and the total is set at 49.5.

4) Super Bowls on FOX Result in Points

Looking to the last five Super Bowl broadcast on FOX, four of them have gone over the game’s total. Here’s a quick look:

• SB57 / 2023 – KC vs PHI – Cov = AFC & Dog Total = Over
• SB54 / 2020 – SF vs KC – Cov = AFC & Fav Total = Under
• SB51 / 2017 – NE vs ATL – Cov = AFC & Fav Total = Over
• SB48 / 2014 – SEA vs DEN – Cov = NFC & Dog Total = Over
• SB45 / 2011 – PIT vs GB – Cov = NFC & Fav Total = Over

Super Bowl 59 will also be broadcast on FOX and the total is 49.5 at the time of writing this.

If you liked this one, check out our straight up Super Bowl trends. If you’re new to betting and want to join the (likely) thousands of others who will dive into a new sportsbook for the Super Bowl, be sure to read the following first:

• Super Bowl Betting Promotions
• Super Bowl Betting Apps
• Where to Bet on the Super Bowl
• Types of Super Bowl Bets
• Super Bowl Prop Bets Explained