Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Odds & Prediction – Nitto ATP Finals

• Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev meet Wednesday at the ATP Finals in a must-win situation
• The winner is likely to move onto the semifinals; the loser is likely to go home
• Medevev has a 7-3 head-to-head and is the favorite; read on for analysis and predictions and our Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev picks

So far in this year’s ATP Finals, the lower-seeded players have been outperforming expectations. Will that be the case again today in the Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev match?

Of course, these are the eight best in the world this year, so seeding is relative.

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Odds

Odds as of Nov. 16 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this Barstool Sportsbook promo code to bet on the ATP Tour Finals

This was especially true Monday when Stefanos Tsitsipas (seeded No. 2) met Novak Djokovic (seeded No. 7, but only because of a lack of tournaments in 2022).

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Djokovic defeated Tsitsipas – again, for the 10th time in 12 meetings.

And now the 24-year-old from Greece faces Daniil Medvedev (3 pm ET, November 16), who will try to beat him for the eighth time in 11 meetings.

It’s been a tough pool for Tsitsipas, who once again is the underdog against an opponent he’s had extremely limited success against.

Medvedev Edged Out by Rublev

In Tsitsipas’s favor is that Medvedev was 5-1 lifetime against countryman Andrey Rublev, whom he faced Monday.

And it was the younger Russian (Rublev is 25, Medvedev 26) who prevailed in what may well go down as the most dramatic match of the week – 6-7 (7), 6-3, 7-6 (7).

Medvedev had 24 aces to Rublev’s nine. But he was far less successful with his second serve, even if he averaged 188 km/hour with it. Rublev earned nine break points (three of which he converted).

Medvedev earned only two break points; those are numbers he’s going to have to improve Wednesday against Tsitsipas.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Head-to-Head

A Touchy, Tetchy Russian Rivalry

These two never squared off on the way up at the Futures or Challengers level.

Both were, if not stars yet, already established on the ATP Tour – Tsitsipas was 19 and Medvedev had just turned 22 – when they met in the first round of the Miami Open in 2018.

Tsitsipas vs Medvedev Match History

It was a particularly contentious debut. And the commonality in language (Tsitsipas’s mother is Russian) belies a basic incompatibility in personalities. It’s funny, too, because apparently, their parents are close friends.

Throughout, nearly all their meetings have come on big occasions; only Basel (ATP 500) wasn’t a Masters 1000 or a Grand Slam.

Medvedev won the first five. Tsitsipas’s first win at the 2019 ATP Finals was a victory he said: “he craved for a long time”.

Since then, they’ve gone back and forth.

Still, nearly all of them have been very, very close.

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniil Medvedev Prediction

Tsitsipas has two issues when he plays Medvedev.

The first is that his backhand doesn’t really hold up in that matchup. The second is that his second serve does him no favors and Medvedev’s deep return position gives him time to catch up to the bigger first serve.

But Medvedev had all kinds of trouble winning points on his own second serve against Rublev, which is a hopeful sign for Tsitsipas.

And Medvedev will be a little wrung out both mentally and physically after the huge effort in vain.

The conditions are different in Turin than they were at the O2 in London, where Tsitsipas posted that first career win. Still, he can draw on that ATP Finals experience a little bit.

At +160, calling for Tsitsipas to pull off the upset here is not a bad call.

But a more likely outcome is that it will be a three-set match, and a long one (over 26.5 games checks in at +150).

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets  (+130)