Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships Quarterfinals Odds & Picks

• Five of the eight seeds at the Rakuten Japan Open in Tokyo made the final eight
• No. 3 Taylor Fritz vs. No. 5 Nick Kyrgios is the most intriguing matchup
• Scroll down to see odds, inside information and predictions for Friday’s Japon Open quarterfinals

There are always surprises in the post-US Open portion of the season.

But so far in Japan, the favorites have mostly prevailed. And Nick Kyrgios, back for his first tournament since the US Open in the place he won the third (and biggest) tournament of his breakout season in 2016, is feeling right at home in both singles and doubles.

Rakuten Japan Open Quarterfinals Odds

Odds as of Oct. 6 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this ESPN Bet promo code to bet on the Rakuten Japan Open

Canadian Denis Shapovalov has recovered well from the disappointment of losing the final in Seoul last week and is continuing his impressive play in Japan. However, he is an underdog in the odds above to advance past the Japan Open Quarterfinals.

That said, he’s had a pretty good draw in getting past American Steven Johnson, and Japanese qualifier Rio Noguchi.

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Tiafoe vs Kecmanovic Prediction

If you’d looked at Miomir Kecmanovic’s chances of winning this match even a week ago, you wouldn’t have taken any odds on him.

The only victories he’d posted since the Los Cabos tournament in July were against an exhausted Pablo Carreño Busta in Cincinnati (who flew in right off an impressive run to the title in Montreal), and against No. 1,042 American wild card Learner Tien at the US Open. He has risen from No. 78 in the rankings at the start of 2022 to No. 33. But he hasn’t done that by beating very many players ranked higher than he is.

🎾 @FTiafoe gets @kylekuzma loose in Tokyo! #NBAJapanGames on @NBATV pic.twitter.com/y3YgITDuwr

— NBA (@NBA) September 30, 2022

But the Serb has had a good week in Japan, squeaking past Yoshihito Nishioka (another player on fumes after a tournament title last week in Seoul) and No. 8 seed Dan Evans.

For Tiafoe, drained from Team World’s win at Laver Cup but re-energized by meeting up with his hometown NBA team in Japan before the event, it’s a good opportunity to get to a 500-level semifinal. He’s had an easier draw, but that will only give him confidence.

The American is 2-0 vs. Kecmanovic, both on hard courts and in straight sets, but both before the pandemic.

Pick: Tiafoe in Two Sets (+128)

Shapovalov vs Coric Prediction

Borna Coric was injured in Seoul, pulling out after the draw because of an ankle sprain. But he continued to practice on-site there.

He ended up sneaking in on a No. 9 seed in Japan after No. 2 seed Cameron Norrie was forced to pull out because he was quaranting with COVID in Seoul. It was a big help for him, because he might well have ended up playing Shapovalov (or Kyrgios, or Tiafoe) in the first round.

It allowed him to post solid wins over Brandon Nakashima and Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Shapovalov is playing at a higher level than either of those two. But he’s 0-2 vs. Coric – both meetings in 2018.  Coric won a tight three-setter in Miami that year. And he also defeated the Canadian in three straight sets in a Davis Cup tie later that year. Shapovalov was still just 18, and just inside the top 50 back then.

It sets up as a long one.

Pick: Over 25.5 Games (+108)

Kyrgios vs Fritz Prediction

The top two pre-tournament favorites meet in the Japan Open quarterfinals.

Kyrgios’s tennis since Wimbledon has basically been lights out. And he’s well rested coming into Tokyo after going home to Australia after the US Open.

Opponent Taylor Fritz is in the opposite situation.

It was more low-key than his Laver Cup competitor Cameron Norrie (who tested positive during the tournament). But Fritz had to quarantine because of COVID in Seoul as well.

Covid quarantine for a week in a hotel room in South Korea, get out of lockdown this morning, wake up at 5am, fly to Tokyo, compete 💪🏻 https://t.co/BIrZfd2Yw3

— Taylor Fritz (@Taylor_Fritz97) October 5, 2022

He got out early this week, flew to Tokyo and won a three-setter that night. And another three setter Thursday night.

Most of the players who were at Laver Cup have not fared particularly well in the aftermath. Those who played Davis Cup the week before, as Fritz did, even less.

And it feels like Fritz might well hit the wall against an eager Kyrgios, despite having beaten handily in Cincinnati this summer.

Pick: Kyrgios in Two Sets (+138)