Frances Tiafoe vs Taylor Fritz Odds & Prediction – Japan Open Finals

• The Japan Open singles final on Sunday will be an All-American affair: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe
• They’ll square off Sunday, Oct. 9 at 4:30 p.m. in Tokyo (3:30 a.m. ET)
• Fritz has a 4-1 lead in the head-to-head; we break down the matchup and make a prediction

The All-American final in Tokyo featuring No. 3 seed Taylor Fritz and No. 4 seed Frances Tiafoe – both 24 – is the coming of age of the new American generation.

And it’s the biggest occasion for the new generation so far, as the Japan Open is an ATP 500 event.

Tiafoe vs Fritz Odds

Odds as of Oct. 8 at Barstool Sportsbook. Use this ESPN Bet promo code to bet on the Japan Open.

With a 4-1 head-to-head vs Tiafoe, Fritz is the favorite in this one at -143.

Both Fritz and Tiafoe had three-setters in the semifinals on Saturday – both dropping the second set – to earn their spot.

But Fritz had by far the tougher challenge against the higher-ranked Denis Shapovalov. And he may well have known that the hard-earned victory would get him into the top 10 in the rankings for the first time.

For Tiafoe, against No. 120 Kwon Soonwoo of Korea, it was more a matter of controlling his nerves and resetting after being bagelled in the middle set.

Childhood Rivals Facing off in the Pros

The two couldn’t be more different. Fritz is a child of privilege from Southern California whose mother was a top-10 player in the Evert-Navratilova era; Tiafoe is the Maryland-born child of Black immigrants from Sierra Leone, whose story was well-documented during his run to the US Open semifinals last month.

They are part of a rising new generation of American male players, along with Tommy Paul and Reilly Opelka.  And perhaps the internal rivalry created by having a good crop all at once helped in that rise.

Tiafoe vs Fritz Head-to-Head

Contrasting Styles for the Americans

The two players couldn’t be more different. On the technical side, Fritz is textbook, while Tiafoe’s technique has been an evolving miracle of overcoming poor stroke production.

Both possess the huge first serve. There’s an edge for Fritz in terms of his success with his second serve – only a 1% difference, but Fritz is in the top 20 for that statistic on the ATP Tour in the last year; Tiafoe is just outside the top 40. Overall, though, on serve, they’re very close.

Where Fritz has an additional edge is on return; he’s broken in 25 percent of his return games this year; Tiafoe sits at just over 20 percent.

Tiafoe vs Fritz Match History

If Tiafoe (who would leap to the top 15 if he wins the tournament) has taken a step up this year, so has Fritz, who would be at No. 8 in the world with the title.

It wouldn’t be the biggest moment of Fritz’s career, as he won Indian Wells in March almost in his own backyard. But it would be for Tiafoe; his tournament title so far came nearly five years ago, at a smaller event in Delray Beach, Fla.

That might help Fritz win the battle of nerves.

Tiafoe vs Fritz Pick

Despite the head-to-head being strongly in Fritz’s favor – he’s won the last four – this is different territory.

The two have played in a lot of major events. But because of their rankings up to this year, it’s often been in earlier rounds.

Fritz’s head-to-head vs Tiafoe is what it is because he just does a lot of things – other than those involving speed – a little better. He’s a highly-underrated competitor and fighter. And he’s more consistent.

Tiafoe also owned him in the juniors. And you never forget that.

But their history against each other, and even this week, screams three sets.

Best Bet: Over 2.5 Sets (+123)