Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Prediction, Odds & Best Bet for Australian Open Semis

• American Ben Shelton has reached his second career grand-slam semifinal
• Shelton is a big underdog to world #1 and reigning Aussie Open-champ Jannik Sinner
• Below, see the Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner odds, predictions, and best bets for Thursday’s semifinal in Melbourne

World #20 Ben Shelton dispatched Lorenzo Sonego in four sets on Tuesday, setting up a semifinal clash at the Australian Open with reigning champion and world #1 Jannik Sinner. Riding a 22-match overall win streak, Sinner is a massive favorite to dispatch the American on Thursday evening. The projected start time for this match is 3:30 am ET on Friday morning. But the exact time will depend on the length of the other semi final between #7 Novak Djokovic vs #2 Alexander Zverev, which is scheduled to start at 10:30 pm ET on Thursday night. Both semis will be played in Rod Laver Arena.

Ben Shelton vs Jannik Sinner Odds

Sinner, who opened as a heavy -1100 favorite to reach his second straight Australian Open final, has shortened all the way to -2000 as of Thursday morning. Shelton, who was a +700 longshot to end the Italian’s win streak, has ballooned to +1100, giving him just a 8.3% implied win probability. The game spread favors Sinner by 6.5 with -115 juice on the world #1.

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Sinner has only dropped two sets in five matches on his way to the semifinals. He took care of big-serving Nicolas Jarry (7-6, 7-6, 6-1), Tristan Schoolkate (4-6, 6-4, 6-1, 6-3), Marcos Giron (6-3, 6-4, 6-2), and Holger Rune (6-3, 3-6, 6-3, 6-2), before demolishing crowd favorite Alex De Minaur (6-3, 6-2, 6-1) in the quarterfinals.

The world #1 is the odds-on favorite to win the entire tournament in the Australian Open odds.

Shelton has been almost as dominant on his road to the semis, losing four sets over five matches and never once going to a fifth set. He downed fellow American Brandon Nakashima (7-6, 7-5, 7-5), Pablo Carreno-Busta (6-3, 6-3, 6-7, 6-4), Lorenzo Musetti (6-3, 3-6, 6-4, 7-6), and Gael Monfils (7-6, 6-7, 7-6, 1-0 retired) before taking care of another Italian, Lorenzo Sonego, in Tuesday’s quarterfinals (6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6).

The head-to-head history between the 22-year-old America and 23-year-old Italian has been completely one-sided of late, however. Sinner has won four straight matches without conceding a set.

 Shelton vs Sinner H2H History

Shelton’s last (and so far only) win over Sinner came back in October 2023 in a three-setter in Shanghai. The pair’s only previous meeting at a grand slam came at Wimbledon last year, when Sinner won in straight set.

In his four-match win streak over the American, Sinner has also won four straight tiebreaks, with Shelton only winning 16 total points in those tiebreaks.

Shelton vs Sinner Predictions & Picks

I see no value in betting against Sinner on the moneyline these days. He’s reached the point of inevitability against basically anyone other than Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz. But I don’t expect Shelton to be a pushover. He’s only lost serve seven times in five matches, and the medium-fast courts in Melbourne play into his big-serving style of play.

Each one of Shelton’s last four matches with Sinner included a tiebreak. If he can either win a set or force two tiebreaks, the over (33.5 games) is almost guaranteed to hit.

The closest player to Shelton that Sinner has faced in the tournament so far was the Chilean Jarry, who managed to take the world #1 to a tiebreak in the first and second sets before fading with a whimper in the third.

Shelton, who also reached the semifinals at the 2023 US Open (where he lost to Novak Djokovic in straight sets), shouldn’t be overwhelmed by the moment his second time around.

Shelton vs Sinner Picks:

• Over 33.5 games (-110)
• First set over 10.5 games (+185)