Lazio vs Napoli Odds & Prediction – Serie A Round 5 (Sept 3)

• Lazio host Napoli on Saturday in round 5 of the 2022-23 Serie A season
• Both teams are unbeaten through four matches with eight points apiece
• Napoli are +130 favorites on the moneyline in the latest Lazio vs Napoli odds

Napoli makes the trip to Rome to face Lazio on Saturday. Both teams are unbeaten, but they come into this match off respective midweek disappointments with Lazio conceding an added-time equalizer to Sampdoria and Napoli being held to a 1-1 draw by winless Lecce despite having 71% possession.

Atalanta and Roma are setting the early pace with 10 points apiece. With what is expected to be a fierce battle for the top four spots, how teams fare when facing each other could be decisive. This is only an early season matchup between Lazio and Napoli, but it is a chance for either team lay down a marker.

Lazio vs Napoli Odds

Odds as of Sep 2 at Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this weekend’s Serie A fixtures

Over/Under and Spread

Serie A odds have Lazio as an underdog at home for this fixture with a price of +190 to win the match. A close game is expected, however, with the home team at -160 on the +0.5 spread. Over 2.5 goals has cashed in four of the last five meetings between these sides, and that is reflected in the pre-match betting with a -140 price on the over.

Lazio vs Napoli Prediction for Serie A Round 5

Napoli have won their last three against Lazio overall, including a 2-1 victory in this fixture back in February. Lazio, though, have won two of the last three at the Stadio Olimpico and have already secured victories over Bologna and Inter at home in 2022-23.

Sarri coached this match to perfection:

– Clear ideas
– Players had a fire in their eyes
– No fear
– Perfect substitutions

Well done from him 👏 #LazioInter pic.twitter.com/dg8s1BehGH

— Marco Messina (@IFTVMarco) August 26, 2022

In a small sample, the expected goals figures lean heavily towards Napoli. Only two teams have a better expected goal difference thus far, while Lazio is in the bottom half by that metric. The hosts have generated just 3.6 expected goals through four matches.

Napoli finished 15 points clear of Lazio in 2021-22, but they notably lost Fabian Ruiz, Kalidou Koulibaly and Arkadiusz Milik during the summer. While they still have a slightly stronger squad than their Saturday opponents, there isn’t a great deal to choose between the teams on talent alone.

Victor Osimhen to Score Odds

One key factor for the club from Naples, however, is having Victor Osimhen available. The former Lille striker scored 14 league goals in just 23 starts in 2021-22, and he leads all Serie A players in expected goals per 90 so far this term. He already has a couple of goals to his name.

Still Striving For Greatness💯💪🏽🙏🏽 pic.twitter.com/iMEwUdQXbP

— Victor Osimhen (@victorosimhen9) August 30, 2022

Osimhen is priced at +125 to score anytime, good for a 44.4% implied probability. Given his mark of 0.95 expected goals per 90, this is a great value wager against a Lazio defense that conceded 58 goals in 2021-22.

The Nigerian got five shots off when he faced Lazio last season — it’s a big ask for this Lazio back line to keep him quiet for 90 minutes.

Lazio vs Napoli Serie A Statistics

Lazio vs Napoli Lineups and Injuries

Lazio Projected Lineup: Provedel; Lazzari, Romagnoli, Patric, Marusic; Milinkovic-Savic, Antonio, Alberto; Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni.

Lazio Injuries: Hysaj.

Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret; Di Lorenzo, Kim, Rrahmani, Rui; Anguissa, Lobotka; Politano, Raspadori, Kvaratskhelia; Osimhen.

Napoli Injuries: Demme.

Lazio vs Napoli Pick

Lazio’s win over Inter at home could tempt bettors to back the hosts here. Napoli are the team who represent superior value on the moneyline, however, with the visitors amassing 43 points on the road last season. They might be accustomed to dominating possession, but they have the personnel to be effective on the break, too.

📸 #NapoliLecce: snaps from the second half

💙 #ForzaNapoliSempre pic.twitter.com/sOGuZCR3FG

— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) August 31, 2022

Over 2.5 is worth considering for this fixture, too. Goals have been plentiful between these sides in recent years. If the +130 on Napoli straight up doesn’t appeal, a same-game parlay of Osimhen to score anytime, both teams to score and Napoli to win or draw comes in at +260.

There’s plenty of value to be found in this one, and it should be an entertaining encounter to wrap up an enthralling Saturday in Serie A.

Pick: Napoli Moneyline (+130)