NASCAR 2019 Food City 500 Odds & Picks

• The Food City 500 is scheduled for Sunday, April 7th at 2:00 p.m. EST
• Kyle Busch has two wins in his last four starts at Bristol Motor Speedway
• Matt Kenseth’s 4.00 average driver finish at Bristol is the best among active drivers.

The Food City 500 is on tap for Sunday, April 7th at 2:00 p.m. ET. Kyle Busch is once again the favorite but he’s fresh off a season-worst 10th-place result. Is he worth the investment this week, or are their better drivers to bet on? Let’s take a closer look.

2019 Food City 500 Odds

*Odds taken 04/03/19

Bet on Busch

If you feel like you’ve seen Busch in this section before, you have and you can expect to see him weekly until something drastically changes.

Busch very nearly added to his incredible season by completing the triple-header weekend sweep in Texas last week. However, despite leading the race six different times – including with only 59 laps to go – he faded late and ended up producing his worst result of the season: a 10th-place finish.

Kyle Busch is getting good at this burnout thing.#TicketGuardian500 pic.twitter.com/F587jNsu7U

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) March 10, 2019

Don’t let that result trick you into thinking it represents more than just a couple of bad breaks in a race in which Busch still looked really good at times. He’s already won this race on four different occasions, including two of his last three starts at Bristol Motor Speedway overall.

After a “lousy” finish last week, Busch will be motivated to bounce back from his worst start of the season.

After a “lousy” finish last week, Busch will be motivated to bounce back from his worst start of the season. If you feel like the +250 isn’t enough for you to risk it on him to win outright, a top 10 prop bet seems to be safe with Busch these days.

The Lowdown on Logano

While Busch is the obvious pick, it makes sense to look a little further down the list of contenders to some decent value picks, and Logano is one option from the second tier.

While he has never won this race in particular, Logano is a two-time winner at Bristol Motor Speedway and he has averaged an eighth-place finish in his last three starts at this track.

Congrats to Denny Hamlin #NASCAR @dennyhamlin #texasmotorspeedway pic.twitter.com/iV2ONxQVFf

— vinny (@Vincent86714077) April 3, 2019

He’s been a bit of a boom-or-bust driver this year, though, with three finishes in the top four and three finishes of 17th or worse. However, he is the only driver other than Busch, Hamlin, or Keselowski to record a win so far.

Can Harvick Break Through?

While only four different drivers have won Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series, Harvick has been the best driver that has yet to win. He has six straight top 10 finishes. If you don’t want to bet him outright, a top 10 prop bet seems like a reasonable option.

On FS1 yesterday, Harvick and Dillon mentioned a 43 pit crew member who waves to all the drivers. Tried to look today, but it looks like the whole crew does that. pic.twitter.com/hgtNkl3Jpk

— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) March 31, 2019

Harvick has won several races at Bristol, including both in the Cup Series and Xfinity. In fact, his average finish mark in his last seven appearances at this track is 5.4. If you’re looking with someone who pays a little more than Busch for the win, Harvick is your guy.

Avoid Johnson for Now

There has been a considerable amount of talk about the fact that Johnson is coming off his best finish of the year so far with a fifth at Texas Motor Speedway. While he has won this race twice before, including most recently in 2017, you’re probably better off avoiding him.

She’s fast and we’re ready pic.twitter.com/658DvOs1zh

— Jimmie Johnson (@JimmieJohnson) March 31, 2019

Could he be trending in the right direction? Possibly. We hope so as it’s been a trying couple of years for the driver who used to dominate. At the same time, he hasn’t finished better than fifth this year and hasn’t won a race since June 2017.

Wait for him to win a race outright before hopping on the bandwagon.