Kansas Governor Odds Narrowly Favor GOP’s Derek Schmidt over Democrat Laura Kelly

• Republican Derek Schmidt is the -163 favorite to win the Kansas Governor election over Democrat Laura Kelly
• Kelly has served as Governor of the state since 2019
• Schmidt is currently the Kansas Attorney General

In her battle to maintain her position as Governor of Kansas against Republican Derek Schmidt, incumbent Democrat Laura Kelly has history on her side. The last five Democrats to run for re-election as Governor of Kansas were all successful.

The oddsmakers, though, are leaning at history being made. They are liking Schmidt as the -163 favorite over Kelly. George Docking, in 1961, was the last incumbent Democrat to be beaten in a Kansas Governor election. He was seeking a third term at the time.

2022 Kansas Governor Election Odds

Odds from Bet365 as of August 19th.

Note that the odds quoted above are from Bet365, a UK and European sportsbook which is permitted to offer political futures. This market is not open to US bettors.

Libertarian Seth Cordell and Republican State Senator Dennis Pyle are also running for Governor in Kansas. Pyle is running as an Independent.

At a betting line of -163, Schmidt and the Republicans are being given an implied probability of victory that works out to 61.98%. A $10 wager on him would return a payout of just $16.10 should they be the party that wins the 2022 Kansas Gubernatorial election.

The Democratic run of success in Kansas began with Robert Docking. He won re-election in 1968, 1970 and 1972. Term limits prevented him from running again in 1974.

John Carlin (1982) and Kathleen Sebelius (2006) also won a second term as Kansas Governor. Democrats Joan Finney (1994) and Mark Parkinson (2010) opted not to run for a second term.

Schmidt Has Trump Support

Schmidt, who has the backing of former Republican President Donald Trump, currently the betting favorite in the 2024 US Presidential election odds. In the Republican primary, Schmidt garnered 80.6% of the vote to easily defeat Arlyn Biggs.

Kelly is a supporter of Trump’s provably false claims that the 2020 US Presidential election was stolen from the Republican Party. He’s also a staunch anti-abortionist.

BREAKING: Trump-endorsed Derek Schmidt wins Republican nomination for governor in Kansas primary election via @DecisionDeskHQ pic.twitter.com/snJj80rM8s

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 3, 2022

Schmidt defeated Democrat Stephen Six to win the Kansas Attorney General position in 2011. He won re-election over Democrats AJ Kotich in 2014 and Sarah Swain in 2018. Prior to that, Schmidt served as a member of the Kansas State Senate from 2000-10. From 2005-10, Schmidt was Senate Majority Leader.

As Attorney General, Schmidt has he has opposed expansion of LGBT rights in Kansas. He’s defended the state’s laws against same-sex marriages. As well, Schmidt opposed efforts to legalize or decriminalize marijuana in Kansas. He battled with Governor Kelly over public health orders issued during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Governor Kelly in for Tough Re-Election Battle

Kelly crushed opponent Richard Karnowski in the Democratic primary for Kansas Governor. She won 96.4% of the vote.

Kelly is a pro-abortion rights supporter. A bid to further restrict abortion rights in the state was defeated by a margin of 18 points. That should bode well for Kelly’s chances of re-election. She’s also been able to fundraise more than $1 million and more than Schmidt. In such a traditionally Republican area, it’s vital in Kansas for a Democrat to be able to be able to spend more on a campaign than a Republican opponent.

Last year, Kansas exceeded $5 billion in agricultural exports — the most in state history. That wouldn't be possible without the true grit of the Kansas ag community. We celebrate you every day, but especially today at the Kansas Ag Growth Summit! pic.twitter.com/Agw0us02ed

— Governor Laura Kelly (@GovLauraKelly) August 18, 2022

In the 2018 election for Kansas Governor, Kelly garnered 48% of the vote, compared to 43% for Republican Kris Kobach. Since 2002, there have been 57 Gubernatorial elections in the US involving incumbents. The incumbent is 45-12.

Kansas Governor Prediction: Schmidt vs Kelly

Schmidt is 6-0 in elections in Kansas – three wins for State Senate and three wins for Attorney General. However, it’s worth noting that in two of his three State Senate wins, he ran unopposed.

In 2018, Democrat Laura Kelly won the election to become Kansas's governor despite the state usually being solid for Republicans. This was due to a combination of factors including 2018 being a Democratic wave year and Kris Kobach not unifying Republicans. #ElectionTwitter pic.twitter.com/RLeZrJUAJp

— Orca (@orcasaccount) August 3, 2021

Kansas is clearly the reddest state in which the Democrats are seeking to defend their Governor’s chair among those up for grabs this November. However, Kelly has managed to maintain an approval rating above 50%. She also beat a Trump ally in Kobach to win her first term as Governor.

The non-partisan Cook Political Report is billing this election as a toss up.

Pick: Laura Kelly (Democrat) +120