Updated Odds for Alex Ovechkin to Break Goal Record in 2024-25

• You can bet on whether Alex Ovechkin will break Gretzky’s goal record in 2024-25 or not
• Ovechkin scored a hat trick Sunday, significantly boosting his chances
• Read below for the updated odds for Ovi to break the record this season

After Alex Ovechkin scored a hat trick against the Edmonton Oilers on Sunday, oddsmakers were forced to update their betting odds for Ovi to break the NHL goal record in 2024-25.

In our last update, Ovi not breaking the record this season was the favored outcome, but the tables have now turned dramatically

Let’s dive into how the odds have changed for Ovechkin to break the goal record, and see what’s the best bet for hockey bettors looking to capitalize on this historic chase.

Updated Odds – Ovechkin Passes Gretzky in 2024-25

Betting odds as of Feb. 23 at BetMGM Sportsbook. Bet on the Ovechkin goal market with the BetMGM bonus code.

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Oddsmakers are now offering -180 odds for Ovechkin to break the NHL goal record in 2024-25, which translates to 64.3% implied probability. There are also odds of +135 available for Ovechkin not breaking the record (42.6% implied probability)

Ovechkin Hat Trick Bolsters Odds

Playing at home in Washington on Sunday, Ovi delivered a vintage performance, scoring three times in a 7-3 victory over the Oilers. His three-goal masterclass included a wrist shot in the second period, a signature power-play one-timer later in the same frame, and an empty-netter in the third to seal his 32nd career hat trick.

Ovi’s outburst brought his season total to 29 goals in 41 games, a remarkable pace for the 39-year-old superstar. With 882 career goals, he’s now 12 goals away from tying Gretzky and 13 from surpassing him.

Heading into the All-Star Break, Ovechkin was a heavy underdog to break Gretzky’s goal record this season. In late January, The Athletic gave Ovechkin a mere 12% chance of breaking the record this season, projecting him to finish with 888 goals based on his then-pace and injury recovery.

However, this hat trick performance in his second game after the break has dramatically shifted the odds. Ovechkin is now listed at heavy -180 odds at BetMGM to break the record in 2024-25. The Athletic’s model, meanwhile, says the true probability jumped from 14% to 35% – significantly lower than the bookmakers’ implied probability.

Ovi is currently averaging 0.71 goals per game this season (29 goals in 41 games), the highest rate of his illustrious career. If he maintains this pace over the remaining 25 games, he’d score approximately 18 goals, easily surpassing Gretzky’s 894 (882 + 18 = 900).

Even at his career average of 0.60 goals per game (882 goals in 1,467 games), he’d net 15 goals in 25 games, putting him at 897—enough to break the record with room to spare.

When Will Ovechkin Break the Record?

If Ovi maintains his current season pace (0.71 goals/game), he would break the record on April 4th at home against the Chicago Blackhawks. If he regressed and started producing at his career pace (0.60), he’d break the record on April 12, 2025, on the road against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The minimum pace Ovi needs is 0.52 goals per game, a threshold he’s exceeded in most of his 20 NHL seasons to date. If he scores exactly 13 goals, he’d break the record in the final game, April 17, 2025, on the road against the Pittsburgh Penguins.

If you want to buy into the ‘Hollywood’ narrative, there would be no more fitting way than for Ovi to break the record in the final game. He came into the league with Sidney Crosby, so it would be storybook if he made history 20 years later with his rival and fellow superstar opposite him on the ice in Pittsburgh.

However, I don’t see reason to believe Ovi won’t get there before the season’s final game. The Capitals are leading the NHL in goals per game, and Ovi has only missed 75 games in his entire career due to injury. He’s going to continue getting golden scoring opportunities with linemates like Dylan Strome feeding him pucks.

Odds for the Team Ovechkin Scores Goal #895 Against

The Blue Jackets are the betting favorites at +550 to be the team Ovi scores the historic goal against. They are far from a lock, however, priced at just 15% implied probability in what remains a wide-open market.

A key reason I’m bullish on Ovechkin breaking the record sooner rather than later is NHL strength of schedule. The Caps have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule, according to Tankathon.com, giving Ovi plenty of opportunities against weaker defensive teams.

I like the value on the Islanders at +675. He’s scored the fifth-most goals against them in his career, and the Apr. 15 contest is his last game before a 4-day break heading into the final stretch. Not to mention, it’s the only true remaining afternoon game on Washington’s schedule.

Ovechkin has excelled in day games this year, tallying seven goals and six assists in eight such appearances – a trend worth monitoring for bettors looking for an edge.