NHL Playoffs: Maple Leafs vs Lightning Game 6 Odds & Prediction (Apr 29)
By George Nassios in NHL Hockey
Published:
- Game 6 between the Maple Leafs and Lightning goes down on Saturday, April 29th
- Since 2016, the Leafs have lost 10 straight games when they’ve had the chance to end a series
- For the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds, read on below, plus our best bet and prediction
Refusing to go quietly into the night, the Lightning showed the resolve of a Stanley Cup champion squad as they defeated the Leafs 3-2 in Game 5 to stave off elimination. Their opponents could surely learn something from the championship mettle of the Bolts.
No time to look in the rearview in the postseason, Game 6 between the Maple Leafs and Lightning is on Saturday, April 29th with the faceoff scheduled for 7:00 pm ET at Amalie Arena. This game will be broadcast on TBS in the States with CBC and Sportsnet carrying the coverage in Canada.
Strangely enough, road teams are 4-1 in this series thus far. See the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds for Game 6 below, as well as our best bet and pick.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Odds – Game 6
| Game Time (ET) | Team | Puck Line | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7:00 pm | Toronto Maple Leafs | +1.5 (-260) | O 6.5 (-110) | -110 |
| Saturday, April 29th | Tampa Bay Lightning | -1.5 (+220) | U 6.5 (-110) | -110 |
Losing this game would be nothing short of a catastrophe for Toronto, even though it wouldn’t end the series. No favorite has been declared for this matchup as oddsmakers have pegged this one a pick’em in the Maple Leafs vs Lightning odds. Each team pays out at -110 on the moneyline.
Early NHL public betting trends show most are currently favoring the Leafs despite their knack for failing in crucial moments with 59% of the wagers on Toronto to close things out. Our formula predicts the Maple Leafs will beat the Lightning by a score of 3.56–3.32.
Odds as of April 28th at DraftKings Sportsbook.Â
Ghosts of Playoffs Past Haunting Maple Leafs
Sometimes you see statistics that make you do a double-take. For bettors that aren’t ardent followers of the Maple Leafs, there is one particular trend that currently sticks out like a sore thumb. In the Buds’ last 10 contests where they’ve had a chance to close out a series, they’ve lost them all. That’s an improbable 0-for-10.
You would think at some point, a bounce or call or something would go their way to rid themselves of that infamous storyline. It’s continuing to follow them like the plague after losing Game 5 to Tampa, 3-2 on home ice. Every single one of those 10 defeats we mentioned has come with this current core of Maple Leaf players.
Maple Leafs’ Core Four Production in Close-Out Games
| Player | Goals | Assists | Points | Plus/Minus |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 |
| Mitch Marner | 0 | 4 | 4 | -4 |
| William Nylander | 1 | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Morgan Rielly | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 |
As you can see above, the performance of the skaters who have been on the team for each of those 10 losses has been less than admirable.
If Toronto is looking for some positives heading into Game 6 there are a couple of things they can consider. For starters, other than Game 2, they really haven’t been at their best, yet still are one win away from advancing to the second round in the NHL Playoff Bracket.
Maple Leafs in potential series-clinching games since 2013
Record 0-11
Goals For 23
Goals Against 44
Power Play 2-for-24 (8.3%)
Penalty Kill 66.7%— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) April 28, 2023
In addition, the road team has been the best betting choice in the NHL odds in this series, with the visitors winning four of the five games so far. Toronto won both contests in overtime in Tampa and three straight at Amalie Arena dating back to the regular season.
Vasilevskiy Shines in Game 5
Uncharacteristically struggling through the first four matchups against the Leafs, Andrei Vasilevskiy showed why you should never doubt him in Game 5. He stopped 28 of 30 shots, including a huge save on a Mitch Marner breakaway with the Bolts up 2-1 in the 3rd period.
Andrei Vasilevskiy shuts down Mitch Marner's breakaway attempt#GoBolts | #LeafsForever pic.twitter.com/aGCb4Yx0D9
— Hockey Daily 365 l NHL Highlights & News (@HockeyDaily365) April 28, 2023
It’s only the second time in 12 playoff games against Toronto that the Russian netminder has conceded less than three goals. Game 5 was also the first time in the series that the teams went under the betting total of 6.5 goals.
Vasilevskiy improved to 21-4 after a loss in the playoffs since the beginning of the 2020 postseason, Tampa’s first run to a Stanley Cup championship with their current roster. If he is just starting to get on a roll, the Leafs could be in serious trouble.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Prediction
A Lightning win would force another dramatic Game 7 for this Leafs side, but they can’t afford to play like they have some cushion. A loss on Saturday night would cause their Stanley Cup odds to lengthen considerably as Tampa would have all the momentum.
Maple Leafs vs Lightning Same-Game Parlay Picks
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline | -110 |
| Under 6.5 Goals | -110 |
| PARLAY ODDS | Â +255 |
It’s time to cast aside the narrative that this team is a bunch of chokers. Our prediction is that they throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Lightning and treat this as a do-or-die even though it’s only the Lightning facing that situation in Game 6.
If they don’t, the gravity of pressure on Toronto for Game 7 would be unimaginable. Every trend eventually goes to an end, so take the Leafs to finally advance to the final eight in the postseason for the first time since 2004.
Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs Moneyline (-110)
Be sure to browse the best Toronto Maple Leafs betting apps before wagering on the game.
Sports Writer
George has had a lifelong love affair with sports and studying sports statistics since he was a kid. He graduated from Ryerson University with a Bachelor's Degree in Journalism and has worked in the sports & media industry ever since in various roles from writer to producer.
