NFL Picks for Week 15: Expert & Computer Upset Predictions

• Looking to bet the remaining 15 games of Week 15 in the 2024-25 NFL season?
• My SBD formula and I have offered our NFL picks for Week 15
• See the underdogs we are betting to pull off an upset below

Week 15 marks the first week of no more byes in the 2024-25 NFL season, meaning there are 15 more games to be played across Sunday and Monday. If you wanted to bet any of those games, but weren’t sure which side to pick, or just wanted your bias confirmed, I have teamed up with my SBD formula to offer our Week 15 NFL picks. As usual, we are focused on the underdogs we feel can pull off an upset.

I took a beating on my picks last week, going 0-3. Hitting the Chargers pick would have brought me back close to even, but the Chiefs lucked out another one. My SBD formula did not predict any upsets last week, so it was 0-0. However, two of the three games where it had tight margins of victory ended with the underdog winning, and four of the five dogs it had keeping the game close did end up covering the spread. So, it was a decent week for my formula.

Week 15 NFL Picks

I only have one upset pick for Week 15, and my SBD formula is only calling for one upset itself. We are both calling for the same upset as well. This has happened before and it will happen again. It’s my formula after all. If you do want to tail us (or even if you want to fade us), be sure you check out our NFL odds page to get the best moneyline odds for all Week 15 games when you are ready to place a bet – the odds I have included above are from when I wrote this article.

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If you’re wondering where the rest of my SBD formula’s computer picks are, you technically have them. It has favorites winning every game other than the Cowboys upsetting the Panthers. Going a little further into my SBD formula, though, it has three favorites that its predicting will win their respective game by 4.2 points or less:

• Lions to beat the Bills by 4.2 points
• Chargers to beat the Bucs by 1.8 points
• Eagles to beat the Steelers by 3.1 points

You can do what you like with that information!

If you wanted more than moneyline picks, Zach Reger has published his Week 15 NFL picks against the spread, and John Hyslop has shared his favorite Week 15 NFL player props. But for now, I will share why I like the Cowboys to beat the Panthers below.

Cowboys Over Panthers

Simply put, these are two bad football teams. I typically don’t love betting on bad football teams, but I do like betting against bad football teams. So, I’m looking at this as more of the latter than the former.

The Carolina Panthers rank 28th in points scored and 30th in total yards. Their defense has allowed the most points in the league and the second-most total yards. You could certainly make the argument that Carolina has been better over their last five games, where they have won two of them, and each of their three losses has come by six points or less. But I could say the same thing about the Cowboys over the last three weeks.

Dallas is 2-1 in their last three and their defense has certainly been better since Micah Parsons returned to the lineup. After a pretty quiet game from Parsons last week, I think he serves as a bit of an X-factor in this one. I like him to get some pressure on Bryce Young, and force some errant throws. It may only take a couple of them, as Carolina’s defense hasn’t stopped people very often this season.

Ultimately, I feel much better about the Cowboys offense, led by Cooper Rush, than I do the Panthers offense. Rush has been decent throwing the ball, but Dallas has also found a bit of a running game with Rico Dowdle as the lead back. I think they’ll be able to lean on him and take advantage of a Panthers defense that has allowed the second-most yards per rushing attempt.

• Pick: Cowboys moneyline (+135 at ESPN Bet)

ESPN BET

Offer

T&Cs

Bet $10 & Get $100 + 30 Days of ESPN+

Must manually enter promo code DIME to claim offer.

Must be 21+, offer available in MI, NJ, PA, WV only.

LOCK IN PROMO

CODE: DIME

CODE: DIME

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USE PROMO CODE
DIME

BET $10, GET $100
+ 30 DAYS OF ESPN+

GET OFFER NOW