NFL Week 4 Picks Straight Up – Predicted Upsets & Underdogs Showing Value

• The Chargers are racking up injuries but still are big favorites in Houston
• The Jaguars visit the Eagles in what might be the best game of the week
• Last week’s picks went 2-1, winning us 1.43 units and bringing out season total to +0.73 (4-5-1)

This is a tough slate of games to build on the success of last week’s picks. There’s only three spreads amongst the NFL Week 4 lines that are greater than 4.5 points. The majority of games are tight toss ups that don’t offer a ton of value on the upset.

Not only is there a lot of scouring to be done this week, there’s also some self-reflection required. This is the time of year where some of our preseason expectations need to face the reality of results. I wasn’t a believer in the Dolphins heading into the year, but through the first few weeks, I’ve learned this team is ready to make some noise (at least before they fed their clearly concussed QB to the wolves) .

NFL Week 4 Upset Picks

Odds as of September 30th at BetMGM and Caesars Sportsbook.

Opposite that, we start by fading a team I had high hopes for before the season, but now reality has set in.

Houston pops cherry vs Chargers

Still in search of their first win of the season, the Houston Texans are 5.5-point underdogs to the visiting Los Angeles Chargers.

This line is still influenced by our preseason expectations of what the Chargers could be. The reality is, this team probably shouldn’t be giving more than a field goal here, and even that feels like a stretch.

Their quarterback is playing with busted ribs, behind a suspect offensive line that just lost their best player, in a system that is uninspiring and doesn’t look to create deep shots. (Not that they have any receivers available to catch them.)

A Geno Smith led offense is better than the chargers bro https://t.co/3SuMPKDmMP

— belfort (@rahermani) September 27, 2022

The defense lacks depth at edge rusher and just lost their best source of pressure for weeks. And if you’re prepared to hand wave all those injuries away by saying “who cares, it’s the lowly Texans,” need I remind you what happened last year against a far less talented Houston team?

THE TEXANS UPSET THE CHARGERS

A bettor put $20,000 on Texans moneyline before the game at +460.

Payout: $112,000 🤑pic.twitter.com/GFBIzmzCPM

— DraftKings Sportsbook (@DKSportsbook) December 26, 2021

The Texans may not have won a game yet, but they’re undefeated against the spread. This is a feisty bunch that will hang tough with the Bolts and pounce if they can’t clean their act up.

Los Angeles hasn’t really looked impressive at any point this year, and their only victory came in a tight one against the league’s other winless team. Don’t let the hype machine fool you anymore, this is a beatable bunch and Houston is up to the challenge.

Jags maul Eagles

Doug Pederson leads his upstart Jaguars against his former team and Jacksonville is sizeable underdogs, getting 6.5 points in Philadelphia.

A peek behind the curtain of these picks: I really tried to talk myself into some other games this week. Bears over Giants. Titans over Colts. Cardinals over Panthers. But the argument was always the same: these are two bad teams, surely the one getting points will win.

It seems silly that through four weeks the Jags have appeared here three times, but there’s a reason I keep wanting to bet this team: they’re good! And not just AFC South good. Like, actually a complete football team good.

There is only one team in the top five of both offense and defense DVOA.

The Jacksonville Jaguars.#NFL | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/gkUrFsUgr5

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) September 26, 2022

What made me hesitant this week is that the Eagles are also incredibly talented. But as folks smarter than I have pointed out, Philly has yet to face any adversity this season. They’ve jumped out to big leads in every game so far. If the Jags can punch them in the mouth early, I think we’re all curious to see how Jalen Hurts and company will respond.

Jalen Hurts has attempted 12 passes while trailing. pic.twitter.com/zQst0MLF2l

— Eagles Graphs (@EaglesGraphs) September 27, 2022

Pederson might not get a heroes welcome in the City of Brotherly Love. (Sure he won them their only Super Bowl, but these are the same fans who threw batteries at Santa. Who knows what to expect?). But the man is already a saint in Duval for cleaning up Urban Meyer’s mess and putting Trevor Lawrence in an offense where he doesn’t just survive, but thrives.

Trevor Lawrence averaged a career-low 2.39 seconds time to throw in the Jaguars 38-10 victory over the Chargers.

Lawrence was efficient on quick passes (less than 2.5 seconds), completing 19 of 23 attempts for 162 yards & TD (+9.4 passing EPA).#JAXvsLAC | #DUUUVAL pic.twitter.com/8GIyCksk9U

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 25, 2022

Because of how quickly Lawrence is processing the game, I don’t fear what the Eagles front four will do, despite racking up eight sacks in Washington. The Jags should be able to move the ball.

This game will come down to whether Jacksonville’s defensive line will be able to make life tough on Hurts. I can’t say for sure that they’ll answer the bell, but I know this: in a week full of field goal lines, by far the best underdog out there is fetching a touchdown. That’s value!