NFL Picks Against the Spread for Week 5

• I have made my NFL Week 5 picks
• Underdogs are 33-29-3 (53.2%) against the spread this season
• Keep reading to see my three NFL picks against the spread for Week 5

We have made it to another week in the NFL. Week 5 features some marquee divisional matchups, as well as plenty of other games that will tell us a lot about certain teams. Teams in the NFL can look completely different week to week. Will Jayden Daniels and the Commanders stay hot? Can the Cowboys go on the road and win on Sunday Night Football?

I am targeting one underdog and two favorites in my NFL Week 5 best bets against the spread. See below to find out which teams I am backing this Sunday.

Browns vs Commanders Odds

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NFL ATS Picks #1: Browns +3.5 (vs. Commanders)

The NFL odds have the Commanders listed as 3.5-point favorites over the Browns on Sunday. Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are one of if not the hottest teams in the league heading into Week 5. The offense has moved the ball with ease against the Bengals and the Cardinals the last two weeks.

The Browns’ defense will be Jayden Daniels’s toughest test yet. Cleveland is allowing under 300 yards per game, and I expect Jim Schwartz to have a strong game plan in place to limit the rookie’s production.

Deshaun Watson and Cleveland’s offense has struggled, but this is the perfect matchup for them to right the ship. Washington’s defense is allowing over 25 points per game and ranks fourth in yards per attempt allowed and second in yards per carry allowed. The Commanders also have not generated much of a pass rush, so Watson should have more time to make plays.

I believe this line is an overreaction to the Commanders’s early success, and this is a buy-low spot for the Browns. Underdogs have been covering the spread this season, and I like getting over a field goal with the much better defense. I’ll take the Browns to cover the spread on Sunday.

• Pick: Browns +3.5 (-120)

Raiders vs Broncos Odds

NFL ATS Picks #2: Broncos -3 (vs. Raiders)

The Broncos’ defense has been elite this season and has played a major role in their 2-2 record. They have allowed under 10 points per game in their last three and are ranked second in passing yards allowed per attempt. Pat Surtain has been a lockdown corner, and now he will go against a Raiders offense that will be without Davante Adams.

Pat Surtain 1-on-1s vs Garrett Wilson pic.twitter.com/7S04WfW2GM

— James Foster (@NoFlagsFilm) September 30, 2024

Gardner Minshew will have a tough time throwing the ball, and Denver’s rush defense has been stout as well. The O/U in this game is very low at 35.5, so points will come at a premium.

The Raiders’ defense has been solid, but they have been vulnerable against the run. They are allowing the third most yards per carry in the league at 5.2. This plays right into what the Broncos want to do. They want to lean on the run and play mistake-free football. Bo Nix has not done much on the stat sheet, but he has protected the football and just threw for his first touchdown pass last week. The Broncos beat Vegas by at least a field goal.

• Pick: Broncos -3 (-105)

Cowboys vs Steelers Odds

NFL ATS Picks #3: Steelers -2.5 (vs. Cowboys)

The Steelers are coming off their first loss of the season, both straight up and against the spread, last week, but they should bounce back on Sunday Night Football vs the Cowboys.

Dallas has looked nowhere near as dominant as they were last season. Their defense especially has struggled and now they will be without Micah Parsons on Sunday. Pittsburgh’s offense has not been anything spectacular, but Justin Fields has looked good in a Steelers uniform so far. They should be able to move the ball and score points against this Cowboys defense.

This bet on Pittsburgh is primarily on their defense. They struggled against Joe Flacco and the Colts last week, but they are still a top unit in the league. I love getting this Steelers defense under a field goal at home on Sunday night. The crowd will get into it, and I am not sure this game ends up being particularly close. I’ll take Steelers -2.5 on Sunday Night Football.

• Pick: Steelers -2.5 (-115)