Early Public Betting Trends for NBA Conference Finals – See Money Splits for Celtics vs Heat & Warriors vs Mavericks
By Eric Rosales in NBA Basketball
Published:
- Public wagering mostly on Heat, Warriors ATS in Game 1 of East and West Conference Finals
- Mavericks vs Warriors seeing a lot of action on over/under
- See betting trends for Eastern and Western Conference Finals below
We’re down to the NBA’s version of the Final Four.
Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat takes tips off Tuesday (May 17), at 8:30pm ET on ESPN. The East’s top seed, Miami is a 1.5-point favorite.
The following day, the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors kick off Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals from the Chase Center, tipping off at 9pm ET on TNT. Fresh off dusting the top-seeded Phoenix Suns, the Mavs are 5-point ‘dogs against the Dubs.
Let’s look at the betting trends heading into these opening contests.
Eastern & Western Conference Betting Trends
| Game 1 | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +1.5 | 44% | 48% | 204.0 | 43% | 52% | +110 | 65% | 60% |
| Miami Heat | -1.5 | 56% | 52% | 204.0 | 57% | 48% | -130 | 35% | 40% |
| Game 1 | Spread | ATS Handle% | ATS Bet% | Total | O/U Handle% | O/U Bet% | Moneyline | ML Handle% | ML Bet% |
| Dallas Mavericks | +5.0 | 46% | 45% | 214.5 | 74% | 72% | +175 | 41% | 42% |
| Golden State Warriors | -5.0 | 54% | 55% | 214.5 | 26% | 28% | -210 | 59% | 58% |
Betting trends as of May 16th at DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Celtics vs Heat Betting Analysis
Money against the spread is in favor of the Heat, who are seeing 56% of the money, though only 52% of the of the total bets are against the spread.
Miami might be the least challenged team that’s made it to the Conference Finals. The Heat made quick work of the Atlanta Hawks in Round 1, while adding an extra push to the implosion that is the Philadelphia 76ers in Round 2.
process of elimination 💥🖐 pic.twitter.com/yoayuSkXsO
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) May 13, 2022
That doesn’t mean Miami hasn’t looked good as well, and they’re doing it old school: with a suffocating defense. The Heat hold the highest defensive rating of any team still standing, while holding teams to a paltry 97.5 points per game these playoffs.
On the other hand, the public likes the Celtics as the outright winner at +110 odds, with 65% of the moneyline bets on the visitors, and 60% of the bettors going after the straight up pick. In terms of total, the under is seeing 57% of the over/under money, taking 48% of the wagers.
During his availability, Ime Udoka said Marcus Smart is questionable for Game 1 with a midfoot sprain he suffered during Game 7, & that Robert Williams won't have any restrictions in Game 1. Udoka said before Game 7 Williams was available but he didn't want to shift his rotation.
— Tim Bontemps (@TimBontemps) May 16, 2022
Boston has probably had the most impressive run thus far, sweeping away Kevin Durant and the Nets, and then taking Giannis Antetokounmpo’s best bunch in bouncing the Milwaukee Bucks in seven games.
The Celts have the lowest offensive rating of the remaining four clubs, but you have to temper that with the fact that Milwaukee was the best defense in the playoffs, and Jayson Tatum and company worked their way past them.
I like the Heat rested and ready against a Boston team that was pushed to the max in Round 2 and with Smart ailing heading into the series. You may want to get on this before the line shifts to account for that.
The pick: Heat -1.5
Mavericks vs Warriors Analysis
Out West, the Warriors are seeing 54% of the bets against the spread, which is taking 55% of the betting money.
The Dubs have had an up-and-down run to the Conference Finals, looking like gangbusters in taking out 2-time league MVP Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets. Then they looked positively ordinary in beating the upstart Memphis Grizzlies in six. GState staggered in the final three games in wrapping up that series — with Ja Morant out with injury, no less.
Fun fact: Steph Curry is the only player on the NBA 75 team to advance to the Conference Finals. pic.twitter.com/LFoduUWU7R
— StatMuse (@statmuse) May 16, 2022
Still, Golden State’s title pedigree is getting respect by the betting public. On the moneyline, 59% of wagers are on the Warriors at -210, also taking 58% of the betting money.
The Mavericks, however, provide a fresh face in the conference finals, with a newly minted superstar in Luka Doncic. He was a wrecking ball against the Suns, and is likely the best player left going in the playoffs. He averaged 32.6 points, 9.9 rebounds and 7.0 rebounds against Phoenix.
Luka Doncic went off in game seven to eliminate the Suns! 😤 pic.twitter.com/Q2rt5rSTMa
— ESPN UK (@ESPNUK) May 16, 2022
He started the playoff party late too, missing the first two games against the Utah Jazz in Round 1, a series Dallas took in six.
The most convincing action on the betting trends is currently on the over/under, where 74% of the public are banging the over, with 72% of the money.
The 214.5 line is generous, considering the Warriors are leading the playoffs in scoring at 114.2 points per game. Dallas may be the lowest-scoring team left standing, but they have posted 111 points or better in three of the last four. Jump on that now.
The pick: OVER 214.5 points
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Sports Writer & Editor
Having worked in and around sports since 1997, Eric is truly a knowledgeable expert. The two-time journalism grad specializes in all things NBA and NFL. From TSN.ca to CTV's Olympic Broadcast Consortium, Eric's work has appeared in local and national publications alike.
