Houston vs Baylor Prediction, Props & Odds for Saturday Night Basketball

• The #3 Houston Cougars visit the Baylor Bears as 4.5-point road favorites
• Houston won the first meeting 76-65 at home last month
• See the Houston vs Baylor prediction, props & odds for tonight’s Big 12 showdown

It’s the final day of the regular season in college hoops, and we have a monster Big 12 matchup to break down in the college basketball odds. The #3 Houston Cougars (26-4, 18-1 Big 12) hit the road to battle the Baylor Bears (18-12, 10-9 Big 12) with major postseason implications on the line.

Tip-off for this Saturday night special is set for 10 pm ET at the Ferrell Center in Waco, TX, with ESPN providing the national broadcast.

Houston vs Baylor Odds

Houston enters this game as a 4.5-point road favorite, with a total set at 130.5 points. The Cougars are -200 on the moneyline (bet $200 to win $100), with Baylor coming back at +165 (bet $100 to win $165).

Per the college basketball public betting trends, 95% of moneyline handle and 87% of ATS bets are on Houston.

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Odds as of March 8th at BetMGM. Check out BetMGM rewards for the best college basketball offers.

Houston vs Baylor Prediction

Houston is steamrolling towards a potential No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The Cougars have already clinched the Big 12 regular-season title at 18-1 in conference play and are riding a 9-game winning streak into Waco. They rank 3rd overall in KenPom’s rankings, with the nation’s 2nd-most efficient defense.

I’m making Houston -4.5 my best bet in this spot. The Cougars already beat Baylor 76-65 at home last month, and their elite defense travels extremely well. Houston is a perfect 9-0 straight up on the road in Big 12 play, covering the spread in 8 of those contests. They match up well with a Baylor squad that has struggled against top competition.

The Bears are just 0-7-2 ATS as an underdog this season, losing those 9 games by an average of 13.1 points. They shot 57.9% from the field and 60% from three in the first meeting with Houston and still lost by double-digits. The Cougars are relentless on the defensive end, forcing turnovers on 22.3% of possessions (12th nationally).

Houston’s ability to control the pace (360th in adjusted tempo) is another big advantage in this matchup. Baylor wants to speed things up offensively, but will have a hard time doing so against this disciplined and veteran Cougars squad. I’m laying the short number with the better team on the road.

• Houston vs Baylor Pick: Houston -4.5 (-110)

Houston vs Baylor Props

Before you make any Saturday college basketball prop bets, it’s a good idea to understand the tempo and defense of these two Big 12 programs.

Advanced stats from KenPom.com. AdjO = Offensive Efficiency, AdjD = Defensive Efficiency, AdjT = Adjusted Tempo, SOS = Strength of Schedule

Based on these stats from KenPom, I’ve locked in a few prop bets for Houston vs Baylor, though admittedly, they may not be the most fun to bet.

Houston vs Baylor Prop Pick #1: Houston Under 67.5 Points (-115)

Sticking with the expectation of a slow-paced, defensive battle, I’m playing Houston’s team total under. The Cougars play at the 360th fastest tempo nationally, milking the shot clock and limiting possessions. Baylor’s defense is much better at home, allowing just 65.5 points per game compared to 73.7 on the road.

Houston scored 76 in the first meeting, but shot 10-of-24 (41.7%) from three-point range. That’s well above their season average of 33.2%. If the Cougars have an off shooting night on the road, points could be very hard to come by. I’m projecting something like a 64-58 Houston win, so give me the under on their inflated team total.

Houston vs Baylor Prop Pick #2: Robert Wright UNDER 9.5 Points (-110)

The freshman has been inconsistent in Big 12 play, and I’m fading him against Houston’s stifling defense. Wright did score 10 in the first matchup, but I’m not sold it’s replicable, with four points coming from the free throw line and two from deep.

Wright is shooting just 28% from three in conference play, and has gone under this total in three of his last six. In a step up in competition, I’m selling high on his recent production and playing the under.