Canelo vs GGG 2: Golovkin Favored in Rematch with Alvarez [UPDATED]

• Undefeated middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin puts his belts on the line in a rematch with Canelo Alvarez on Sep. 15.
• Most pundits feel GGG was robbed in the first fight, which was scored a draw. 
• Will GGG’s sheer power overcome, once and for all, Canelo’s speed and defensive acumen?

[Updated Sep. 10th, 2018: find the updated odds at the bottom of the page.]

Unified middleweight champion Gennady Golovkin (38-0-1, 34 KOs) will finally get another chance to vanquish former champ Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (49-1-2, 34 KOs) on Sep. 15 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

The rematch was originally scheduled for May 5, but was pushed back due to Alvarez testing positive for a banned substance (clenbuterol).

When the final bell sounded in the first fight last September, analysts and experts scoring at home largely gave the fight to Golovkin, and the CompuBox statistics agreed that GGG had gotten the better of Alvarez.

The compubox numbers for #Canelo vs. #GGG. GGG outlanded Canelo 218-169 and landed more punches in 10 of 12 rounds. pic.twitter.com/MSprnXXwoo

— Andreas Hale (@AndreasHale) September 17, 2017

Yet, the fight ended in a draw. Judge Dave Moretti scored it 115-113 for Golovkin; Don Trella had it 114-114; and Adalaide Byrd somehow scored it 118-110 in favor of Canelo, an inexplicable tally that’s been widely lambasted in the aftermath.

Odds for the Canelo vs GGG Rematch

Heading into the rematch, sportsbooks are in agreement that GGG is the favorite, recognizing that he deserved to have his hand raised last time.

Golovkin’s -160 odds equate to a 61.5% implied probability.

Canelo’s +145 odds amount to 40.8%.

In other words, if you think GGG wins this matchup 62 out of every 100 instances, there is value in betting on the champ. If you think Canelo wins at least 41 out of every 100, there is value on the challenger.

Tale of the Tape

The Matchup

As the highlight package below shows, Golovkin was the aggressor for most of the first fight, which was expected. The Kazakh loves to push forward and overwhelm opponents with his massive power, while Canelo is plenty comfortable operating as a counter-puncher.

Alvarez exhibited tremendous defense, evidently learning a few things from his loss to Floyd Mayweather back in 2013. But Golovkin was still able to land his shots from time to time and do more significant damage, especially in the first two-thirds of the fight. In particular, when Golovkin was able to back Canelo into the ropes, he was able to score.

In the latter portions of the 12-rounder, Alvarez fought back (so to speak). The pair exchanged in the center of the ring more, and the Mexican got the better of most of those encounters, utilizing his slightly faster hands and more fluid body movement.

Canelo managed to tag GGG with big shots of his own, which scored points for the Mexican but, concerningly, didn’t come close to staggering the Kazakh and his iron chin.

Which way you bet the rematch will depend on what you deem more likely: (a) it plays out much the same as the first go-around, but better judging results in a GGG victory, or (b) Canelo learns from his mistakes and is able to reproduce what he did in the latter stages of the first fight from the opening bell.

There’s a decent chance that Alvarez will be able to perform better early on in the rematch. Even though he hasn’t fought in a year, he is nearly a decade younger than the ever-aging Golovkin and his speed advantage could be more pronounced this time around, especially if he decides to come into the bout a little more sveldt.

But the more likely result is that GGG does exactly what he did in the first fight: pressures Canelo early, lands some significant shots, and displays some rock-solid defense of his own. The only time Canelo was able to land significant blows was while GGG was also throwing, and that’s not a recipe for beating the champ, who’s already proven that he can take Canelo’s best shots and keep moving forward.

Which way do you see the rematch going? Let us know in the comments section below or on Facebook or Twitter.

UPDATE: As of Sep. 10th, the odds had shifted slightly in Canelo’s favor at two sportsbooks.

Updated GGG vs Canelo 2 Odds

A few side props have also popped up, including over/under rounds, method of victory, and whether the fight will go the distance.

GGG vs Canelo 2 Side Props