2025 Oscars Predictions, Odds & Picks – Anora Heavy Betting Favorite

• The 2025 Oscars will air live on Sunday, March 2nd on ABC and Hulu
• Anora is a heavy favorite to win Best Picture
• Will Demi Moore get the Oscar for best actress? See the odds and our picks for the top categories

Movie’s biggest night featuring excellence in the film industry, takes place at the 97th Oscars. It’ll kick off on Sunday, March 2, 2025 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood, Los Angeles. The event, hosted by comedian Conan O’Brien, will be broadcast live on ABC and Hulu.

Anora is the movie that is creating the most buzz to win best picture, with Demi Moore in the flick “The Substance” the favorite to win best actress, and Adrien Brody currently top billing for best actor in “The Brutalist”.

Let’s dive into the current Kalshi market odds for the top categories at the 2025 Academy Awards. Sign up now with promo code “DIME” to get a $10 bonus!

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Best Picture Odds & Prediction

Anora Poised To Hold Off Conclave For Best Picture

Despite Anora’s chances dropping 13%, and Conclave’s showing solid momentum with a 17% increase, the gulf between the two films appears to be far too wide to close the gap. Ben Zauzmer, who has developed a probabilistic Oscars model for The Hollywood Reporter, is giving “Anora” a 52-in-100 chance of winning Best Picture, while Conclave has only a 15-in-100 chance.

Best Actress Odds & Prediction

Demi Moore Pulling Away With Award

As much as I’d love for Fernanda Torres’ brilliant performance in “I’m Still Here” to be rewarded with a victory, I can’t in good conscience allow my bias to cloud my judgment in this case. Demi Moore was tremendous in the twisted flick “The Substance” and she’s jumped well ahead of Mikey Maddison when it was previously 49% to 44%. Earlier Friday, however, Moore was at 63%, and Madison 32%. Moore is now down to 58% with Madison rising. This one is close enough that I’m prepared to jump on the underdog in this instance, Mikey Moore.

Best Actor Odds & Prediction

Adrien Brody With Healthy Odds To Win Best Actor

Adrien Brody won his first Academy Award for Best Actor way back in 2003 for his role in Roman Polanski’s ‘The Pianist’. Should he capture his second award, he could break a 65-year old record set by Charlton Heston. That would be the longest screen time by a best actor award winner, which was two hours, one minute and 23 seconds. Brody was on for 2:08:30. As much as I’d love to stick my neck out with Timothee Chalamet to spice things up, I’m going with the chalky pick.

Best Director Odds

Sean Baker And Brady Corbet In Two Horse Race

Sean Baker has a 71% implied probability of winning compared to his counterpart Brady Corbet at 33%. Initially I had considered taking a flyer on the underdog for this one, but Baker went up from 68% earlier Friday to 71%. It’s likely they’re pair the best picture up with the best director of Anora in Sean Baker.

Odds via Kalshi as of March 1st, 2025. Sign up now with promo code “DIME” for a $10 bonus!

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