Updated Penn State vs Boise State Odds & Expert Prediction – CFP Fiesta Bowl

• Penn State is an 11.5-point favorite over Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on New Year’s Eve
• The winner advances to the College Football Playoff Semifinals
• Check out the updated Penn State vs Boise State odds and prediction, below

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals kick off this evening as #6 Penn State (12-2) faces #3 Boise State in the desert. The Nittany Lions are fresh off a rout of SMU in the opening round, while the Broncos earned a bye after claiming the Group of 5’s lone bid.

Penn State was a heavy favorite in Round 1 and will assume that role again in the quarterfinals, per the updated College Football odds.

Penn State vs Boise State Odds

The Nittany Lions opened as 11.5-point favorites, and that’s exactly where the line currently sits. The spread betting action is nearly split down the middle, with the Broncos drawing slightly more tickets and handle.

Total-wise, the over/under is up a point from its opener per the College Football public betting trends. The bulk of the wagers (70%) and money (86%) are coming in on the under, suggesting this number may come down prior to kickoff.

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The Fiesta Bowl will get underway at 7:30 pm ET from State Farm Stadium, in Glendale, AZ, with ESPN providing the broadcast coverage.

Odds as of December 31 at 12:30 pm ET. Be sure to check out the best sportsbook promotions before placing a bet on any College Football matchup this week.

Why Sportsbooks Aren’t More Bullish on the Broncos

Six of the final eight teams left standing in the College Football Playoff Bracket have at least a 13.1% chance of winning the National Championship per SP+. The lone two exceptions are Arizona State and Boise State.

The Broncos are a feel-good story, fuelled by Ashton Jeanty. College Football’s best player racked up 2,497 rushing yards and 29 TDs en route to a second-place finish in the Heisman Trophy odds. He averaged 134 rushing yards in his three least productive games of 2024, which would rank him fourth nationally if extrapolated over the entire season.

In his other 10 starts, he averaged 209 rushing yards, numbers not seen since Barry Sanders’ days. The key to stopping Boise State is shutting down Jeanty, and the Nittany Lions have the personnel to do so.

Penn State ranks fourth against the run this season. They’ve allowed just 100.4 rushing yards per game, and have stuffed opponent rushers behind the line of scrimmage on 27% of their carries. The Nittany Lions held nine opponents under 100 yards, and that’s playing in the fiercely competitive Big Ten.

Sure, Ashton Jeanty has had a great season, but you'd be shocked by how many abysmal run defenses he's gotten to face along the way. Penn State is just a little bit better. pic.twitter.com/9mAZbtiOxM

— Josh Yourish (@JYourish3) December 30, 2024

Jeanty, meanwhile, is an explosive run waiting to happen, but he’s not immune to negative plays. The Broncos run game ranks 52nd in stuff rate, and hasn’t faced a defense as talented as Penn State’s.

If the Nittany Lions can slow down Jeanty, more pressure will be put on Maddux Madsen’s shoulders. The Sophomore QB was nearly flawless versus lesser competition this year, but underwhelmed against tougher opponents.

Madsen completed only 53% of his passes against the top-three defenses he faced, and struggled on traditional drop backs. He ranks 98th in passer rating on non-play action snaps, and 114th under pressure.

Penn State’s defense features a top-eight graded pass rush per Pro Football Focus, ranking top-30 in sack rate and coverage.

Penn State vs Boise State Prediction

The Nittany Lions also do an incredible job of keeping teams out of the end zone. They rank third in opponent red zone touchdown rate, yielding six-points only 42% of the time.

Penn State’s Defense looked like the BEST unit of any of the winning teams in the first round.

Do you agree? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/OPpUb9n5xo

— Adam Breneman (@AdamBreneman81) December 30, 2024

On the other side of the ball, they convert red zone trips into touchdowns on 71% of their chances. They turned both red zone visits into TD’s in the opening round, and held SMU to only a field goal in their four trips inside the 20.

Penn State’s offense isn’t explosive, but it is effective. They rank ninth in yards per play, leaning on star tight end Tyler Warren. The Senior is Drew Allar’s favorite target, racking up 92 catches and 1,095 yards this season.

Targeting the Nittany Lions in this matchup makes sense, and there are multiple ways to do it. You could play them against the spread, but the number is right in line with most advanced projections.

As a result, consider fading the Broncos in the team totals market. Boise State under 21.5 points can be had for -135 odds, and that’s a number most teams haven’t sniffed versus Penn State.

The Nittany Lions yield just 15.9 points per game, and have held 10 teams below 21 points. That list includes #8 Ohio State and #11 SMU, who ranked eighth and 12th respectively in scoring.

• Penn State vs Boise State Pick: Boise State Under 21.5 Points (-135)