Timberwolves vs Mavericks Predictions, Picks, Props & Best Odds (Dec. 25)

• It’s a rematch of the 2024 Western Conference Final when the Mavericks host the Timberwolves on Christmas Day
• An ugly 6-8 on the road this season, the T-Wolves are 5.5-point road underdogs to the Mavericks, who are 10-4 at home
• See the Timberwolves vs Mavericks predictions, picks, and best available odds for Dec. 25

Exchanging Karl-Anthony Towns for Julius Randle hasn’t paid dividends so far for the Minnesota Timberwolves (14-14, 6-8 away, 11-17 ATS), who have limped to a .500 record so far this season while watching KAT become a top-ten favorite in the NBA MVP odds in New York. On Christmas Day, the Timberwolves will try to get a measure of revenge against the team that eliminated them from last year’s playoffs, the Dallas Mavericks (19-10, 10-4 home, 17-11-1 ATS). Minnesota and Dallas play in the second of five back-to-back NBA games on Christmas Day, tipping off at 2:40 pm ET at American Airlines Arena.

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks Predictions

• Timberwolves +5.5 (-112) at FanDuel
• Klay Thompson under 13.5 points (-115) at DraftKings
  

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Minnesota enters Christmas on an ugly three-game losing streak, which struck just when it looked like the Timberwolves had turned a corner by winning six of seven. The T-Wolves fell 133-107 at home to the Knicks on Thursday, 113-103 at home to the Warriors on Saturday and, most recently. 124-117 at the Hawks on Monday.

A horrendous slump from Anthony Edwards (25.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 4.0 APG) has been the biggest contributing factor to the skid. Edwards was held under 20 points in all three losses while shooting just 35.7% from the field and 32% from three.

The Timberwolves are also 0-1 against Dallas already this season, losing 120-114 at home on Oct. 29.

But I still firmly believe this Minnesota’s ceiling is a conference championship. Their +2.15 point differential is better than the four teams directly above them in the standings, and they went 3-1 in the regular season against Dallas last year before falling 4-1 in the West finals. As good as Dallas has looked at time this year, I can’t lay this many points against a roster as stacked as Minnesota’s.

I’m also fading Klay Thompson (14.4 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 1.8 APG) in the Christmas Day player props, betting him to stay under 13.5 points. The longtime Warrior was playing his best basketball in over a year in mid-December, scoring at least 16 points in five straight games before a 13-point outing (in just 18 minutes) against the Blazers last time out.

But Klay was held to just seven points on 2-of-7 shooting the first time these teams met back in October. The Timberwolves finished last year with the best Defensive Rating in the NBA and are still rated sixth this season despite the lackluster start to the year. Klay isn’t going to get a lot of clean looks against Minnesota’s perimeter defense, and he doesn’t have the athleticism to create his own shots anymore.

MIN vs DAL Player Props

NBA player props from DraftKings on Dec. 24. 

The T-Wolves vs Mavs props list four players with a point total over 20, led by Luka Doncic at 29.5 and Anthony Edwards at 24.5. Doncic also has the highest assist total on the board at 7.5, while Minnesota center and four-time NBA DPOY Rudy Gobert has the highest rebound total at 10.5.

Gobert is among the top-five favorites in the NBA DPOY odds but trails second-year Spurs center Victor Wembenyama by a healthy margin.

Best Timberwolves vs Mavericks Odds

There isn’t a ton of variety in the Timberwolves vs Mavericks odds at this point. The spread is either 5.0 or 5.5 depending on the book. The best Timberwolves ATS odds are at FanDuel where Minnesota is +5.5 (-112). The best Mavericks ATS odds are at Caesars, where Dallas -5.0 is priced at -110.

Ironically, Caesars also has the longest odds on the Minnesota moneyline at +185. DraftKings is the best option for bettors targeting the Dallas moneyline, listing the Mavs at -205.

The vast majority of sportsbooks have the game total at 221.5 with -110 odds both ways. The only outlier is DraftKings, which has the O/U set at 221.0 with the over slightly favored at -112.

Wednesday’s NBA public betting splits show the public hammering the Mavericks to win. Dallas is getting 92% of moneyline handle as of midday Tuesday. The public also likes the Mavericks to cover, with 65% of ATS handle on Dallas. When it comes to the game total, 80% of handle is on the over so far.