Novak Djokovic vs Lorenzo Musetti Odds & Prediction – Rolex Paris Masters Quarterfinals

• Novak Djokovic hasn’t played that much in 2022. But when he has, he’s been very tough to beat
• 20-year-old Lorenzo Musetti is up against it in their Paris Masters quarterfinal Friday
• Djokovic is a massive favorite; read on as we break down the matchup and look for value

This is only Novak Djokovic’s 11th tournament of 2022, having missed some big ones because of his decision to remain unvaccinated.

But every time he does come back, it sure feels as though it doesn’t take him long to get right back in the swing of things.

Djokovic vs Musetti Odds

Odds as of Nov. 3, visit our ESPN Bet promo page ahead of betting on the Paris Masters

That’s not great news for Lorenzo Musetti, the 20-year-old Italian who is playing the best tennis of his young career.

But given what we’ve seen from Djokovic in his first two rounds at the Paris Masters, it’s not likely to be enough.

Straight Sets for Djokovic So Far

Djokovic had one close set in Paris, in his opener against the tricky serve-volleyer Maxime Cressy.

He had a few looks at breaks, but couldn’t convert. But then he rolled through the tiebreak and the match.

The 35-year-old Serb lost just 3-of-38 points with his first serve, and never faced a break point against Cressy. If he already had the “taking care of his own serve” part down from the get-go, the return game was surely going to follow. Especially as his next opponents were not going to serve as big or put as much pressure on the return.

Surely enough, he rolled past Karen Khachanov in the third round, surrendering just five games.

Djokovic came in 8-1 against the Russian. But that one loss came on that same Paris-Bercy court (albeit a slower version) in the 2018 final.

If the first set (6-4) was close, it was in large part due to the fact that Djokovic’s first-serve percentage was below 50%. He quickly remedied that in the second set. Again, he faced just one break point on his own serve. And he was all over Khachanov’s second serve; he won 17-of-21 second-serve return points (over 80%). Game over.

Djokovic vs Musetti Head-to-Head

Musetti on a Roll

Among the young guns rising on the ATP Tour, Musetti has seemed somewhat overlooked despite the one-handed topspin backhand that always gets the purists gushing.

That’s probably because his results have been up and down. And his forehand – anathema to the modern game – is inconsistent and somewhat attackable.

But as the season’s gone on, he’s improved.

And this week in Paris, he has beaten No. 15 Marin Cilic in straight sets, taken care of Nikoloz Basilashvili and, on Thursday, eliminated No. 3 seed Casper Ruud in three.

More impressively, he has seemed in his comfort zone the entire time while he did it.

Musetti’s success on his own second serve is at 57% for the week. That’s very good. But it’ll be tested on Friday against the best returner in the game.

Djokovic vs Musetti Match History

Djokovic vs Musetti Prediction

Their Dubai meeting looks more like how things are going to go.

That was Djokovic’s first match of the season, after all the drama and trauma of his fraught stay in Australia. And still, he dropped six games.

But their first meeting at last year’s French Open was an epic one – one that taught Musetti a lesson about competing in best-of-five and maybe even set him back a bit, so disappointing it was.

Musetti won the first two sets in tiebreaks against Djokovic, in their round-of-16 matchup in Paris. And then he ran out of gas.

That shouldn’t be an issue Friday, indoors and with best-of-three.

But there really isn’t anything Musetti does that Djokovic doesn’t do better. And that’s why the odds are what they are.

Best Bet: Djokovic in Two Sets (-265)