Napoli vs Ajax Odds & Prediction – Champions League Group Stage

• Napoli hosts Ajax in matchday four of six in the Champions League on Wednesday, October 12th at 12:45 pm ET
• Napoli romped Ajax in the reverse fixture, topping the hosts by a score of 6-1
• Get the Napoli vs Ajax picks and betting predictions below

On Wednesday afternoon, Napoli could clinch their spot in the knockout rounds with a win against Ajax. Of course, Gli Azzurri have taken all nine Group A points so far, mustering up a terrific +11 goal difference. This is the second rendition of Napoli vs Ajax in just eight days and it will be hard for Luciano Spalletti, to ask anything more of his side.

In fact, Napoli’s 6-1 triumph last Tuesday marked Ajax’s biggest-ever European defeat. It was a true masterclass in finishing from the Serie A league leaders, with five different players etching their names on the score sheet. Actually, this offensive fizz from Napoli of late is still quite surprising, considering their recent turnover and the absence of Victor Osimhen up top. Nonetheless, players like Giacoma Raspadori and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia have really stepped up in that forward line.

Napoli vs Ajax Odds

Odds as of October 11 from Caesars Sportsbook. Use this Caesars Sportsbook promo code to bet on this Champions League match and receive a unique sign-up bonus.

Meanwhile, Ajax desperately needs a win if they want to keep pace with Liverpool in second place. With two home matches already wasted, time is ticking for Alfred Schreuder’s side. Dusan Tadic will miss Wednesday’s match on suspension, which makes their task even more unnerving.

Napoli are favorites, with moneyline odds of -170. Considering the fact that Ajax only have one win in their last five matches across all competitions, this is quite fair. Moreover, Napoli are unbeaten in nine consecutive Champions League matches at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Napoli vs Ajax Over/Under
Furthermore, I would expect loads of goals, just like the reverse fixture. Napoli topped their six-goal showcase with a 4-1 win over Cremonese this weekend, proving they just cannot stop scoring.

🏥 Rrahmani suffers tendon injury in left thighhttps://t.co/umtX90DWGx

— Official SSC Napoli (@en_sscnapoli) October 11, 2022

On top of this, Amir Rrahmani will be missing from the Napoli defense. This absence provides a small hole for Ajax to target, with Leo Ostigard being deputized in his position. The current odds for the over on 3.5 total goals sits at +120, which is great value.

Napoli vs Ajax Statistics

Stats in table from 2022-23 Champions League group stage play.

Raspadori to Score Odds

The other bet I have my eyes on is for Raspadori to score anytime with odds of +130. The Italian has four goals in five games for club and country and already has three goals in the Champions League this season. With Osimhen still questionable, his performance could lock up Napoli’s place in the knockout rounds.

🇮🇹 Giacomo Raspadori (22) for @sscnapoli and Italy:

🔥 3 goals in 63 UCL minutes
🔥 2 goals in his last 2 caps for Italy
🔥 6 goals in his last 7 games for club and country

A breath of fresh air. 💪 pic.twitter.com/zTayF26r0d

— Football Wonderkids (@fbwonderkids) October 4, 2022

Napoli vs Ajax Projected Lineups and Injuries

Napoli Projected Lineup: Meret, Rui, Kim, Ostigard, Di Lorenzo, Zielinski, Lobotka, Anguissa, Kvaratskhelia, Raspadori, Lozano

Major Injuries & Absences: Osimhen (questionable), Rrahmani, Demme, Marfella

Ajax Projected Lineup: Pasveer, Blind, Bassey, Timber, Sanchez, Taylor, Alvarez, Berghuis, Kudus, Bergwijn, Brobbey

Major Injuries & Absences: Tadic, Rensch, Kaplan, Ihattaren

Napoli vs Ajax Prediction

All in all, I see Napoli vs Ajax being a one-sided contest. Now, this is not to say that Ajax are a bad side; they are more so just in a bad moment. A loss to AZ Alkmaar and draw to Go Ahead Eagles, puts them in second place of the Eredivisie and shows that their bad form is even reaching their domestic performances.

To boot, the fact that they are conceding 2.6 goals per match over their last five, does not bode well for them either. Frankly, this does make sense given their squad’s abundance of youth. Six of their 11 projected starters are under the age of 22, while Napoli only has two.

🇮🇹 All 𝟮𝟯 names for #napaja ⤸

✔️ Sánchez
✔️ Wijndal
❌ Kaplan
❌ Rensch#UCL

— AFC Ajax (@AFCAjax) October 11, 2022

On the other hand, Napoli could not be further away from a sniff of bad form. They are still unbeaten and are slowly gathering popularity as one of the dark horses in the Champions League odds. Sadly, their moneyline odds against Ajax are just too juicy for me.

Instead, I will go back to the over on 3.5 total goals with +120 odds. Napoli’s offense is prolific, but they have conceded in four straight contests, and are averaging 4.4 total goals in their last five.

Pick: Over 3.5 total goals (+120)